Nightingale vkontakte. Valery Solovey: we are facing very serious polit. Valery Solovey now

The state machine began to work worse, street protests will increase, and the Internet will be turned off for us in 2019 - political analyst Valery Solovey told MBH Media what the results of the Unified Voting Day in Russia say and what to expect in the near future.

About the failure of "United Russia"

- The fact that United Russia will perform worse in these elections than usual was predicted. However, no one imagined so much. Neither experts, nor presidential administration officials, nor the candidates themselves expected this. Moreover, according to my information, during the counting of votes in many regions, the voting results were adjusted. And even so, the candidates from United Russia scored far fewer votes than in previous years. Of course, in yesterday’s election, the “party in power" was defeated.

What happened is primarily due to the fact that a change in public sentiment began to turn into a change in political behavior. People dissatisfied, for example, with the pension reform, began to vote against those who implement this reform - the current authorities. Previously, dissatisfaction with specific phenomena or processes did not develop into dissatisfaction with those who stand behind it.

About the prospects of the electoral protest

- Very soon, those who voted against United Russia may take to street rallies to express their dissatisfaction. So far, they are not doing this, because the social reasons are not explicit enough. However, it is now clear that street protests in the regions have a core, even though it often has a spontaneous character. In my opinion, the electoral protest could turn into a street protest in a year. He needs time to mature. Life is deteriorating, pressure on citizens is increasing, and very soon the Russians will think about participating in rallies. Yesterday, many of them did not vote for United Russia for the first time, but in a year they could go to the square demanding the resignation of the authorities. For example, a disconnection of the Russian Internet from the world’s Internet, which, according to my information, is planned by the authorities at the end of 2019, can provoke mass participation in rallies.

On the conclusions that power will make

- The main thing that the elections demonstrated is that the state machine is working worse and worse, its efficiency is declining. Whether the election results will change anything - I think not. It is unlikely that the authorities will heed the change in assessments of their actions by society. In general, elections in Russia have long been a formality that does not seriously affect anything. I also don’t think that there will be any serious shifts in the Kremlin due to the failed election outcome. However, it is clear that the protest potential is growing and will continue to grow, which means that people will use other means to inform the authorities about their discontent.

In evaluating the figure of political scientist Valery Solovy, there is a bright palette - he is a spy, and a Russian nationalist, and a specialist in suggestion. The incredible accuracy of his forecasts of certain events in the life of the country, voluntarily or involuntarily, evokes the idea that the professor has his own network of informants in the vertical of power. The general public recognized Valery Solovy after resonant performances on Manezhnaya Square in December 2010 and on the RBC television channel.

Childhood and youth

Available in the sources details of the life of a political scientist are not rich in facts. Valery Dmitrievich Solovey was born on August 19, 1960 in the Luhansk region of Ukraine, in the city with a promising name - Happiness. There is no information about the Nightingale's childhood.

After high school, Valery became a student in the history department of Moscow State University. After graduating from university in 1983 for ten years he worked at the Institute of History of the USSR Academy of Sciences. In 1987, he successfully defended his dissertation for the degree of candidate of historical sciences.

Further work biography of Valery Solovy continued in the international fund for socio-economic and political studies “Gorbachev Foundation”. According to some reports, Nightingale worked in the fund until 2008. During this time, he prepared several reports for international organizations, including for the UN, was a visiting researcher at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and defended his doctoral dissertation.

By the way, some observers and political scientists reproach Valery with ties to the foundation and the London School of Economics, believing that both of these institutions cannot be a priori the bearers of ideas for creating a strong Russian state. Along with working in these organizations, Valery Solovey held a position in the editorial board and wrote articles in the journal “Free Thought”.

Since 2009, the political scientist has been a member of the Expert Council of the international analytical journal Geopolitics. The magazine promotes the ideas of preserving Russian identity, statehood, the spread of the Russian language and culture. The editorial staff consists of famous media personalities - Oleg Poptsov, Anatoly Gromyko, Giulietto Chiesa. In addition, Valery Solovey heads the Department of Advertising and Public Relations at MGIMO University.

Science and social activities

In 2012, Professor Solovey made an attempt to make himself known more loudly in the political arena, having created and headed the New Power party, which he announced on January 17 of that year on the air of Ekho Moskvy radio station. Nationalism, according to the professor, lies at the heart of the worldview of normal people, because only thanks to this attitude to life will there be a chance to keep the country.

Despite the fact that the ideas propagated by the party found understanding among people, the registration of the New Force in the Ministry of Justice failed. The party’s official website is blocked, the pages on Twitter and VKontakte are abandoned. This is not surprising, given the right-liberal position of Valery Solovyov: he does not see nationalism as a threat to society, he does not consider it an ideology.

Nevertheless, Valery Solovey continues to be active. To date, he is the author and co-author of 7 books and more than 70 scientific articles, and the number of online publications and articles in the media is in the thousands. In the journalistic environment, it has long become a tradition to interview one of the country's most famous political scientists for every little bit significant occasion.

Frank, unadorned notes of Nightingale in his own blog on the Echo of Moscow website, on personal pages in Facebook and "In contact with" collect a lot of comments. Quotes from speeches, forecasts of the professor (incidentally, surprisingly accurate) become the subject of discussion, taken as a basis in expressing on the pages of the Live Journal the personal position of caring citizens.

Personal life

All that is known about the personal life of Valery Solovyov is that the professor is married and has a son, Pavel. The wife's name is Svetlana Anaschenkova, originally from St. Petersburg, she graduated from the Department of Psychology of St. Petersburg State University, is engaged in the publication of children's literature, textbooks.

In 2009, with his sister Tatyana, also a doctor of historical sciences, Nightingale published the book “The failed revolution. The historical meanings of Russian nationalism ”, which the authors dedicated to their children - Pavel and Fedor.

Valery Solovey now

The last book by Valery Nightingale is “Revolution!” Fundamentals of the revolutionary struggle in the modern era ”was published in 2016.

In the fall of 2017, it became known that the leader of the Growth Party, the billionaire and the ombudsperson for protecting the rights of entrepreneurs will participate in the presidential elections in Russia in 2018. In the campaign headquarters of the party, Valery Solovey was appointed responsible for ideology. The professor believes that in terms of propaganda, the campaign has already been won, and the goal of Titov’s nomination is to influence the economic strategy.

Among the last “prophecies” of the Nightingale is the imminent maturation of the political crisis, the loss of manageability by society, and the aggravation of the crisis in the economy. In addition, on a Facebook page, Valery Dmitrievich expressed the opinion that allegedly one should expect the appearance of Russian volunteers in military conflicts in Yemen, as happened with Libya and Sudan. In other words, Russia will be drawn into another conflict, which again will entail multibillion-dollar spending and rejection of the country in the international arena.

The Nightingale predicts the next presidency of Putin in two or three years, and the reason is not even in the years of Vladimir Vladimirovich (the heads of state are much older), but because "the people of Russia are tired of Putin." And then a series of serious changes will follow.

Speaking of a possible successor, Nightingale does not consider such a Minister of Defense, whose candidacy is not directly, but is being discussed in narrow circles. The political scientist drew attention to the former deputy Shoigu, lieutenant general, governor of the Tula region.

On the exaggerated Ukrainian issue and the topic of the US presidential election, Valery Solovey is also straightforward. According to the political scientist, relations with Ukraine will no longer be the same, and Crimea will remain Russian. And Russia, even long before the elections, launched attacks, but the victory was due to a successful political strategy, exploitation of the role of a guy from a neighboring yard, and mistakes.

Publications

2007 - “The Meaning, Logic, and Form of Russian Revolutions”
2008 - “Blood and soil of Russian history”
2009 - “The failed revolution. The historical meanings of Russian nationalism "
2015 - “The ultimate weapon. Fundamentals of psychological warfare and media manipulation. "
2016 - “Revolution! Fundamentals of the revolutionary struggle in the modern era "

About the failure of "United Russia"

The fact that United Russia will perform worse in these elections than usual was predicted. However, no one imagined so much. Neither experts, nor presidential administration officials, nor the candidates themselves expected this. Moreover, according to my information, during the counting of votes in many regions, the voting results were adjusted. And even so, the candidates from United Russia scored far fewer votes than in previous years. Of course, in yesterday’s election, the “party in power" was defeated.

About the prospects of the electoral protest

Very soon, those who voted against United Russia may take to street rallies to express their dissatisfaction. So far, they are not doing this, because the social reasons are not explicit enough. However, it is now clear that street protests in the regions have a core, even though it often has a spontaneous character. In my opinion, the electoral protest could turn into a street protest in a year. He needs time to mature. Life is deteriorating, pressure on citizens is increasing, and very soon the Russians will think about participating in rallies. Yesterday, many of them did not vote for United Russia for the first time, but in a year they could go to the square demanding the resignation of the authorities. For example, a disconnection of the Russian Internet from the world’s Internet, which, according to my information, is planned by the authorities at the end of 2019, can provoke mass participation in rallies.

On the conclusions that power will make

The main thing that the elections demonstrated is that the state machine is working worse and worse, its efficiency is declining. Whether the election results will change anything - I think not. It is unlikely that the authorities will heed the change in assessments of their actions by society. In general, elections in Russia have long been a formality that does not seriously affect anything. I also don’t think that there will be any serious shifts in the Kremlin due to the failed election outcome. However, it is clear that the protest potential is growing and will continue to grow, which means that people will use other means to inform the authorities about their discontent.

With the participation of professor MGIMO, political scientist Valery Solovy.

- I have a question right away about the Telegram messenger. Why was it blocked? We understand that there are a large number of other messengers that terrorists can use, from which no one asks for keys. Why Telegram?

- Firstly. in order to teach an indicative lesson: “Look, what happens to those who don’t cooperate with the government?” Secondly, the audience of Telegram’s, even if it arranges various kinds of circumvention there, as a rule, in such cases it decreases anyway. And thirdly (and the third is the most important thing), this is just a test of the pen. Since, as far as I know, the policy in this direction will be improved and developed, and should acquire a comprehensive character. The comprehensive nature of this policy is to generally distinguish the Russian segment of the World Wide Web from, in fact, the global space. This should happen sometime by 2020, but the technical capabilities for this should be prepared by 2020. So this is just nothing more than testing.

- So Telegram is this first? First player to get ready?

- Yes, this is not very important from the point of view of the authorities - it is important what will happen next. Now, she is watching the reaction now. Here people are happy that: “Ah! We will get around. ” So rejoice, please. But just the time will come when you can’t do anything at all, you’ll be here in the Russian segment of the World Wide Web exclusively. The iron curtain in the information sphere will fall.

- But if testing is underway and if a large number of users ... Well, the officials will leave. But let’s say, ordinary users will use the opportunity to bypass the lock. What will this test show? What is an ineffective measure. So what is next?

- That's right. This will stimulate. If this is not an effective measure, then we must take more stringent steps that will prove effective. And ultimately, we will come to the point where I started, that we just need to single out our domestic sector and limit it. And delimit, and limit on the model of the Chinese firewall. This has been discussed for several years, and the technical capabilities should be ready by the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020.

- And are not afraid of any protests from users? A fairly active part of society, young.

“Is someone protesting right now?”

- Now there is an opportunity to circumvent this ban. And if he had not been, maybe the reaction was different.

- Well, if you cook the frog gradually, and there will be no protests.

“She doesn't notice it?”

- Of course.

- That is, the field will gradually narrow, narrow?

- Yes, it’s preparing, as far as I imagine (and the logic of events is moving in this direction), a number of measures to expand censorship in general and censorship in the Internet space, in the digital space too.

- Maybe Durov is wrong? Maybe, after all, it was necessary to talk, I don’t know there, with the prosecutor’s office, with the State Duma? How Zuckerberg went to Congress was explained there. But he did not even come to court. Or would it not affect anything?

“Well, he would go, so to speak, to the court, his lawyers would come.” All the same, the question would be: "We need the keys." Ok, keys are provided. This does not cancel the policy movement in the direction that I have outlined to you. It does not matter at all whether he agrees or not, because the decision has been made, the goals are set, for work, comrades.

“And if he provided the keys?”

- So what? All the same, the movement would continue in this direction. Well, how can you stop an asphalt roller that is gaining speed?

- And there is no way to stop this trend?

- Well, unless the state authorities change their ideas about threats and challenges. From his point of view, there, an uncontrolled digital space and a messenger, in particular, Telegram, is an opportunity to communicate for politically disloyal sections of society, to coordinate their actions and for very fast, almost instantaneous, within a few hours, or even several tens of minutes mobilization. This is the danger.

- That is, in a global sense, we should expect that in a few years the Internet will be closed for us?

“They will not cover the Internet, but will limit their ability to access a space other than Russian.”

- Any attempts to appeal this in court? Alleged violation of constitutional rights, complain to the ECHR? Also will not affect anything?

- Not. I think, given the current nature and, again, the development trends of the Russian judicial system, it is completely pointless.

- Good. Hopeless story.

- No, I am simply inclined to believe that the reaction will be unforeseen as always. You can’t plan everything, you can’t foresee everything. Landfill can cause and cause a very strong reaction. And the attempts to limit the Internet space, I think, will also cause a very strong one.

- That is, it is possible, after all, some kind of mass protests?

“I have no doubt about that.” But this will still depend on the context, that is, the context in which all this happens. Because these same steps - although they are being prepared, this does not mean that they are automatically launched. They are launched in a specific context. It is easier to do this when a certain, say, external threat arises. Now is the situation. Well, very conditionally we can call it a “military threat”, right? Maybe she is exaggerated, even most likely exaggerated. With such a sauce, any restrictive measures are always better.

- I think that this argument is not intended for the wrong audience, because everyone understands when our authorities talk about security measures in relation to Telegram that ... Well, this is some kind of nonsense.<...>

- Well, on TV, those who hear, they believe. And 70-80% of people draw, after all, information from television and, in general, they trust it. By the way, precisely because the space of the Internet is expanding, it is becoming an alternative (social networks), which is why they are a threat. Including even primarily a political threat. Therefore, therefore, we must take them under control. Well, since it’s clear that the law will be passed there ... I do not remember its wording. ... about information, protecting reputation on social networks, right? Facebook will be at risk, for example. That is, he, most likely, will also not be there after some time in Russia.

- In the end, what will remain with us? Some kind of internal network ...

“... completely controlled?”

- Yes, completely controlled. By the way, they have a very large audience. Vkontakte, Classmates. Facebook will disappear. As the youth says, they’ll “cut it out”. Instagram will probably remain, and that is not a fact. And that is not a fact. I think that even if he cooperates, this will not guarantee anything to you already.

- But it’s interesting. Well, how likely is it that intelligence agencies, even with the keys to these controlled networks, will read all this correspondence? What will they really study, who is there, who is writing to, what are they talking about, what are they talking about? Why then all this?

“No, of course.” This is technically impossible. Well, if surveillance goes on there, it's surveillance of a limited number, of course, of the characters. Then, yes, that is of interest. Well, therefore, they require that information be stored there for a period of time.

- That is, suddenly you fall into the field of view, and then it will be easy to find incriminating evidence?

“You came into view, and then it will be possible, yes, to restore your story.” Well, compromising material can be detected in this way, or it can be simply constructed, I would say.

“The first consequences have already been played out,” Valery Solovey talks about the new sanctions packages on Ekho Moskvy radio. “You and I saw the ruble fall, the stock markets fall. Although, here, our newsmakers have influenced - I mean the statement of Mr. Belousov. But in general, of course, the reason is the promise of American sanctions ...

The ban on flights Aeroflot in the United States. How do we respond? Accordingly, we will forbid ... It's not that we will forbid Delta to fly to Moscow - we will forbid the flight of American airlines over Siberia. And this is very sensitive for them, I must say, and their airlines will lobby to prevent this sanction.

There we are talking about something altogether utter as a complete ban on any trade relations. Well, that is also impossible. But this, here, is the Chemical Bill, which the State Department is currently promoting. And there is a bipartisan bill, which, in fact, is more sensitive and more dangerous than the Chemical Bill, and which, most likely, will be adopted before the midterm elections to Congress, that is, until November. But we do not know in what form. This is the bill that provides for a ban on servicing a new Russian public debt (not the old, but the new), which refers to the termination of operations of one or more banks (there is a list of 6-7 banks), one or more in the United States. Moreover, various interpretations, various interpretations of the formulas contained in the bill are possible there.

Most likely, if this norm is implemented, then we will talk about Promsvyazbank. Well, we, in fact, were preparing it for this, so that all wiring related to the military industry would go through it.

Well, there are personal sanctions, an investigation into the circumstances of the origin of money, sanctions against families. And this is not very sensitive nationwide, but it is something that the Russian elite is very afraid of.

The fact is that in those famous lists that were published ... Remember, there was a lot of noise around? "Well, there they got it, published the telephone directory of the Presidential Administration?" There is a secret application there. It has several dozen names. Not a few hundred, but a few dozen. Nobody knows what surnames these are, but they really want to know. And they with hedonistic pleasure will pull out one of these surnames (or, perhaps, a couple of three) and impose sanctions. So to speak, to keep this sword of Damocles suspended.

It is hard to say what the consequences will be. If we are talking about a ban on servicing new issues of public debt, well, this, in general, is also the story played out. We are preparing for this. The Ministry of Finance (I can say for sure absolutely) has been preparing for this since the spring. We knew what it would be. That is, the ruble will still decline. Well, now it will get stronger, most likely (although it will not, of course, return to its previous values), then it will weaken. That is, we, in general, of course, are in the logic of Russia's economic degradation. You have to be aware of this and look at things with impartiality. But this degradation will be gradual, and we will go down to a lower level and adapt. We’ll go down yet - we’ll adapt. There is an idea to find 8 trillion rubles. Where to get them? Here, they will be squeezed out of the population. Partly from the population, partly from the oligarchs, from those same metallurgical and chemical companies (they, nevertheless, will be forced to fork out). Need money. Here, they will be squeezed out. All this will, of course, worsen the economic climate and social situation.

I saw some forecasts, I would say, of an organization that can be trusted - they say that next fall can be very difficult for the Russian Federation, because for the world, let’s say, for the USA and Germany it’s a runny nose, for us it can turn out to be severe flu.

The Russian Federation is preparing for the long term. This is not very sensitive nationwide, but it is something that the Russian elite is very afraid of. P